Gas Furnace vs. Electric Heat Pump: What’s Best for SF Winters?

Why SF Winters Change Everything

San Francisco’s cold season is more “cool and damp” than “freezing and snowy.” Winter lows typically hover in the mid-to-upper 40s, and temperatures rarely dip below the upper 30s.

You may have heard that heat pumps struggle when it’s really cold—below 25°F. But those kinds of temperatures are extremely rare here.
San Francisco’s record low of 27°F happened over 80 years ago in 1932. 

Here’s the bottom line: SF’s climate is ideal for heat pump performance.

Gas Furnace vs. Heat Pump: The Basics

Gas Furnace (Heating Only)

• Burns natural gas to create heat and pushes it through ducts
• Delivers that “hot air blast” feeling with quick temperature recovery
• Usually a straightforward swap if you already have a gas furnace and ductwork

Electric Heat Pump (Heating + Cooling)

• Moves heat rather than burning fuel to create it
• Provides both heating and air conditioning in one system
• Delivers steady, even warmth with less temperature swing and a less “dry” feeling

For many SF homes, a heat pump isn’t a compromise—it’s an upgrade.

Which System Is Right for Your Home?

Here’s a simple decision framework:

Choose a Heat Pump if you:

• Want an electric solution aligned with California’s energy direction
• Want heating and cooling in one system
• Prefer consistent, steady comfort for SF’s mild winters
• Are adding or replacing air conditioning anyway

Choose a Gas Furnace if you:

• Want the simplest like-for-like replacement right now
• Don’t need cooling and prefer the traditional furnace feel
• Have constraints (electrical panel, layout, or budget) that make electrification better as a next-step than a right-now step

What About Operating Costs?

This is where many homeowners get stuck, especially with PG&E’s high electricity rates. Here’s what you need to know:
heat pumps are efficient in mild weather because they transfer heat rather than generate it. In moderate temperatures like SF’s winter range, heat pumps can deliver 2–4x more heat energy than the electricity they consume (performance varies by equipment and conditions).
(Note: this is a general efficiency concept; actual results depend on your home and system.)

That efficiency helps offset high electricity rates. Will your monthly bills be lower? It depends on your current gas costs, how much heating you use, and your electricity rate plan.

If you’re electrifying your home, ask us about PG&E’s Electric Home Rate Plan (E-ELEC).
It’s a time-of-use plan where electricity costs less outside of peak hours (4–9 p.m.). 

What About Upfront Costs?

Upfront pricing varies based on your specific situation, but here are typical scenarios:

• Replacing furnace only (no cooling needed): A gas furnace replacement generally costs less upfront,
  typically $6,000–$9,000 depending on efficiency and size.
  (Estimate; actual pricing varies.)
• Replacing furnace + adding AC (or replacing old AC): A heat pump often delivers better value because it combines heating
  and cooling into one system. Expect $10,000–$20,000 depending on your home’s needs and the system’s efficiency rating.
  (Estimate; actual pricing varies.)
• Homes needing additional work: Older homes may need duct improvements, electrical panel upgrades,
  or zoning solutions—those factors affect either option.

Available rebates: Programs change regularly and eligibility depends on location and household income.
Start with BayREN’s incentives finder to see current offerings, and we’ll help you navigate what applies to your project. 

What About Older SF Homes and Victorians?

Many Bay Area homes weren’t built with modern HVAC in mind. Common considerations include:

• Electrical capacity: Older panels or service size may need evaluation, especially if you’re adding multiple electric upgrades over time.
• Space constraints: Where equipment and refrigerant lines can run matters more in older layouts.
• Insulation and air sealing: Drafts and heat loss make any system feel less comfortable. Sometimes small envelope improvements boost performance dramatically.

Ducted vs. Ductless Design

• Ducted heat pumps work well when existing ductwork is in good shape and properly sized.
• Ductless mini-splits are ideal for additions, multi-level comfort issues, or when ducts are impractical.

A good contractor doesn’t just swap equipment. We look at comfort problems room-by-room, confirm load calculations, and recommend a system design that makes sense for your specific home.

Do You Need Backup Heat with a Heat Pump?

For most San Francisco homeowners, no. When properly sized, a heat pump handles SF’s mild winters without backup.
That said, some homeowners choose a dual-fuel setup if their home has significant heat loss, if they strongly prefer the “hot air” feel, or if they want redundancy for peace of mind.

This is exactly why an in-home evaluation matters—your comfort priorities and your home’s construction should drive the decision.

What Happens Next?

Once you know which direction makes sense, the next step is seeing how it actually fits your home. That’s where an in-home evaluation comes in.
We’ll assess your current system, ductwork, electrical setup, and comfort goals, then provide straightforward options with real pricing—no pressure, just clarity.

Why Homeowners Choose Schmitt Heating and Air Conditioning

System choice matters, but so does who installs it. Schmitt Heating and Air Conditioning is family-owned and operated with over 100 years serving
the Bay Area. We’ve built our reputation on customer-focused service across installation, repair, maintenance, and sales.
We’re a Carrier-authorized dealer and Diamond Certified for customer satisfaction and professionalism—qualities that matter when you’re making a major home comfort investment.

Ready to Compare Your Options?

If you’re weighing a gas furnace replacement versus a heat pump in San Francisco, the fastest way to get clarity is a professional evaluation.
We’ll show you what makes the most sense for your home—both for comfort now and for the long run.

Request an in-home evaluation and let’s find the right solution for your San Francisco home.